El Ni’o will probably play the spoiler for a white Christmas.
Dan Thompson, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in White Lake, is predicting no snow for Christmas this year, as well as a warmer and dryer than normal winter overall.
‘It’s not looking too likely to have a white Christmas,? said Thompson on Tuesday, Dec. 15. ‘Longer range projections say we are going to stay on the warmer side. It’s not impossible, but not likely.?
The NWS meteorologists typically forecast weather seven days out and Thompson said it will be ‘fairly warm? heading into Christmas Eve, followed by a ‘little bit of a cool down.?
The area set record highs last weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s, about 25-30 degrees above the normal average temperatures for December in southeast Michigan. The weather has been a stark contrast to the last few winters. Thompson notes that this past February was one of the coldest months on record for this area, and the winter of 2013-14 set a record for the most snow in Detroit and Flint. Ortonville and Goodrich are already above the average snowfall for this winter, but it is all attributable to a single storm that dumped 15-and-a-half inches of snow at White Lake on Nov. 21, also a record for that date.
The snow was welcomed by Mt. Holly Resort staff, which opened and received skiers and snowboarders for three days before the snow melted, rain fell and continuing warm temperatures foiled the snow-making machines.
‘We were able to make snow for a day or two, but all the natural snow had disappeared,? said Mark Tibbitts, Mt. Holly manager, who is hoping for temperatures of 28 degrees and below soon, necessary for snow-making. ‘We don’t look too far and don’t put too much faith in the forecast. We have a good system and just need cold, wintry weather.?
That may be more difficult to come by this year. Thompson said this year’s El Ni’o, a term for the weather cycle which brings warmer water to the equatorial Pacific Ocean and changes the jet stream, is predicted to be one of the strongest in years. El Ni’o occurs about once every five years, but Thompson and his fellow meteorologists are predicting this one to be as strong, or stronger, than the ones seen in the winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
‘We’ve had three really strong el ni’os since the early 80s and this is one of the strongest,? he said. ‘We will have wintry weather, but not as long-lasting as normal. A good example is the storm we had already, which was very significant, but the snow was all gone a week later.?
‘It is pretty interesting for those of us that like weather, but some like winter weather more than others,? he added. ‘I know a lot of people who are happy (about el nino) because the last few winters were brutal, but others who are not so happy because they like to ski.?
Tibbitts is confident Mt. Holly will open again soon, but even he would like some middle ground on winter.
‘In 38 years, I haven’t had a snowless winter where we couldn’t open, but we’d prefer it to be a little more moderate than the last couple winters. I’m still dreaming of a white Christmas.?